Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210211 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.10     85.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.6  35.2  33.6  35.4  41.6  39.3  40.4  39.5  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  30.0  29.0  26.0  19.0  30.0  37.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.1  60.1  60.1  57.9  51.5  55.7  57.9  60.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  39.0  52.0  19.0  15.0  22.0  39.0  32.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  65.0  61.0  55.0  51.0  44.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -9.0  -9.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0  11.0  10.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.6%        2.9%        5.7%
 25kt / 24h        3.6%        4.8%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        2.7%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%        2.7%        2.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        1.6%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        3.4%        1.2%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%