Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210211 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.40     84.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     65.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.6  33.6  35.5  38.9  40.2  38.0  38.9  39.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         60.1  57.9  55.7  53.6  53.6  60.1  62.3  67.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  53.0  19.0  13.0  42.0  27.0  53.0  34.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  62.0  58.0  61.0  54.0  54.0  49.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0  -9.0   0.0  -9.0   1.0   4.0  16.0   8.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.1%        2.6%        6.3%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%        3.8%        3.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        1.8%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%        1.8%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        1.0%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        5.5%        1.2%        3.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%