Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210211 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.20     83.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.6  36.4  43.0  43.5  40.3  37.2  32.6  30.4  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         66.5  60.5  58.5  60.5  64.4  66.5  70.7  75.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  17.0  15.0  17.0   4.0  18.0  -1.0 -11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  58.0  59.0  53.0  51.0  48.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -5.0   9.0  13.0   8.0  16.0  18.0  18.0  N  F  U  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons