Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210212 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.20     83.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     72.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.2  43.4  40.4  41.7  40.3  36.7  33.4  33.6  U VU  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   5.0   6.0  10.0  19.0  16.0  16.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         54.8  53.0  51.2  54.8  62.4  62.4  66.5  70.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  15.0  17.0 -10.0  19.0  -7.0   5.0 -27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  56.0  53.0  47.0  42.0  38.0  37.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  11.0   7.0  14.0  14.0  19.0  21.0  24.0  F  U  N  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons