Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210212 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.80     80.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.9  41.0  43.1  40.1  37.7  36.3  33.4  34.5  U VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         88.5  92.4  94.4  94.4  94.4  98.6 105.1 109.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0   8.0  14.0   2.0   4.0  -4.0   2.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  49.0  45.0  41.0  36.0  38.0  34.0  37.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0  16.0  14.0  17.0  25.0  22.0  16.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        0.1%        0.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons