Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210213 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.00     80.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.6  36.9  36.1  34.8  32.3  32.9  33.8  33.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  18.0  15.0  12.0  16.0  31.0  23.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.4  97.4  99.4  97.4  99.4 105.7 112.3 117.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0   7.0  -4.0 -10.0  -1.0 -18.0  16.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  50.0  45.0  45.0  44.0  46.0  47.0  52.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   5.0   2.0   9.0   7.0  22.0  13.0  13.0  N  N  N  U  N VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons