Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210213 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.40     80.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.8  35.7  34.8  33.6  31.7  30.3  34.4  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         97.4  99.4  99.4  97.4  99.4 105.7 114.6 117.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  -4.0 -10.0   3.0  -9.0  12.0  12.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  47.0  45.0  43.0  46.0  45.0  49.0  50.0  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   9.0   9.0  16.0  16.0  15.0  11.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        3.9%        0.9%        2.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons