Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210213 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.60     79.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.8  29.5  28.9  30.7  28.5  26.3  22.8  29.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  11.0   9.0  13.0  25.0  24.0  23.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        102.4 104.4 102.4 102.4 108.6 115.1 124.3 117.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0   8.0  22.0  -2.0 -18.0  10.0  36.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  44.0  42.0  42.0  43.0  43.0  46.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0   7.0   6.0   9.0   8.0   7.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        0.6%        0.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons