Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210213 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.70     79.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.5  27.3  30.3  28.9  26.1  27.3  20.1  25.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        105.5 103.5 103.5 107.4 113.6 124.6 130.0 122.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  22.0  -2.0 -15.0  30.0   2.0  19.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  44.0  46.0  46.0  44.0  48.0  53.0  56.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0   5.0   5.0  10.0   9.0   4.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.2%        0.4%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        0.2%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h       15.4%        1.9%        8.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons