Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210214 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.80     78.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.2  25.8  25.6  24.0  20.7  18.8  18.2  15.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   9.0  16.0  24.0  26.0  28.0  34.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.6 101.6 105.5 109.4 117.9 130.0 129.3 122.3  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  -9.0 -17.0  -8.0  26.0 -14.0   7.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  42.0  42.0  41.0  43.0  44.0  47.0  52.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0  -1.0   4.0   6.0   2.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        4.9%        2.0%        3.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons