Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210214 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.40     77.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  29.5  26.1  24.0  23.6  18.3  21.0  18.6  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         97.7 101.2 110.5 116.5 125.1 135.0 122.9 125.1  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0 -17.0  -9.0  36.0 -11.0  12.0   3.0   4.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  43.0  40.0  40.0  43.0  42.0  49.0  53.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   4.0   6.0   2.0   0.0  10.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        4.7%        0.7%        2.7%
 70kt / 48h        4.7%        0.6%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h       25.0%        4.2%       14.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons