Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210214 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.10     76.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.0  24.5  22.3  24.1  21.7  21.3  20.6  27.3  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  29.0  28.0  20.0  28.0  36.0  20.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        111.6 119.4 123.6 127.9 140.0 127.9 130.1 130.1  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0 -11.0  12.0  14.0 -14.0   7.0  18.0  -5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  50.0  47.0  55.0  59.0 VU VU VU VU  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   1.0   3.0   3.0   1.0   4.0   5.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        3.3%        1.9%        2.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons