Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210214 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.80     74.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  23.1  25.8  26.6  23.7  25.0  27.6  24.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        119.4 123.6 130.1 139.3 140.0 127.9 127.9 125.7  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -23.0 -18.0   0.0  -1.0   6.0  24.0  63.0  18.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  45.0  46.0  47.0  49.0  54.0  60.0  66.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  -5.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        3.1%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        3.2%        1.3%        2.2%
 70kt / 48h        3.2%        0.9%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h       20.8%        4.8%       12.8%