Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210215 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.70     73.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     53.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  22.8  23.1  22.3  18.7  28.0  27.8  29.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  22.0  23.0  38.0  41.0  20.0  28.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        121.5 127.9 134.6 140.0 130.1 123.6 127.9 121.5  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0  14.0   1.0 -10.0   8.0  31.0  58.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  44.0  46.0  46.0  51.0  61.0  62.0  70.0 VU VU VU VU  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0  -8.0 -14.0  -7.0   0.0  N  N  F  N  F VF  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        6.3%        3.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        1.6%        1.6%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        1.8%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        4.6%        4.3%        4.4%