Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210215 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.90     72.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  23.5  22.4  19.9  20.8  24.9  26.3  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        123.6 132.3 137.0 140.0 130.1 132.3 130.1 123.6  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0   1.0 -10.0  -5.0  24.0  54.0  24.0  -5.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  44.0  45.0  49.0  52.0  60.0  62.0  63.0 VU VU VU  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -4.0  -1.0  -3.0 -13.0  -9.0  -9.0  11.0  N  F  N  N VF  F  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.7%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%       10.0%        5.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        2.5%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        9.0%        9.0%        9.0%
 70kt / 48h        9.0%        3.9%        6.4%
 65kt / 72h       27.6%       11.7%       19.6%