Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210215 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.70     71.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  25.0  21.2  21.1  15.1  16.5  10.1   6.1  N  N  N  N  F  F  F VF
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  21.0  37.0  43.0  26.0  34.0  45.0  35.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.1 134.6 140.0 140.0 134.6 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  -6.0 -13.0   6.0  28.0  38.0  13.0 -15.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  45.0  44.0  43.0  49.0  52.0  59.0  57.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   8.0   7.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        3.9%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        8.4%        4.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        3.2%        4.5%        3.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.9%        3.0%        3.0%
 65kt / 72h       23.4%       17.4%       20.4%