Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210215 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.90     69.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  22.0  22.7  20.1  17.7  21.1  29.2  41.7  N  N  N  N  F  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 134.6 137.0 139.3 132.3 113.5 108.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0   7.0  19.0  16.0  36.0  29.0   9.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  48.0  51.0  52.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   0.0   4.0  18.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        4.2%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        8.4%        4.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        3.6%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        2.1%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%