Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210216 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.40     68.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  16.9  18.8  18.9  21.1  21.8  18.9  25.3  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  37.0  27.0  29.0  41.0  30.0  27.0  26.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 139.3 139.3 140.0 137.0 127.9 125.7 127.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  31.0  28.0  21.0  36.0   7.0  19.0 -19.0  U  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  50.0  52.0  58.0  61.0  64.0  64.0  65.0 VU  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0  -6.0  -6.0  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%       11.3%        6.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        3.6%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        3.0%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        3.0%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%       17.6%        9.8%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        5.0%        3.1%
 55kt / 48h        6.1%        7.6%        6.9%
 70kt / 48h        3.9%        5.7%        4.8%
 65kt / 72h       11.0%       12.9%       11.9%