Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192021 210216 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10     65.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  19.2  17.3  13.9  18.4  21.0  25.0  28.4  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  29.0  38.0  45.0  39.0  36.0  38.0  34.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        144.3 144.3 142.0 142.0 142.0 142.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0   8.0  41.0  29.0  16.0  -6.0 -13.0  22.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  57.0  58.0  61.0  59.0  57.0  55.0  54.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   0.0   4.0   5.0  -5.0  -8.0 -11.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        7.8%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        2.2%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%       14.6%        7.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        3.8%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        6.5%        7.9%        7.2%
 70kt / 48h        4.0%        4.9%        4.5%
 65kt / 72h       17.3%       15.3%       16.3%