Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212021 210218 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.90     37.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  15.0  15.3  13.2  15.0  22.3  14.2  25.5  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  30.0  27.0  23.0   8.0   4.0   4.0   3.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3  97.4  88.0  89.8  93.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  38.0  22.0   7.0  18.0  22.0  24.0  31.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  59.0  55.0  58.0  53.0  54.0  55.0  53.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0 -12.0 -15.0 -25.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.2%       12.8%       10.0%
 25kt / 24h       25.1%       53.5%       39.3%
 30kt / 24h       16.9%       42.8%       29.8%
 35kt / 24h       16.9%       42.8%       29.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.5%       41.4%       21.9%
 45kt / 36h       15.1%       47.9%       31.5%
 55kt / 36h        9.1%       30.6%       19.9%
 55kt / 48h       11.2%       16.8%       14.0%
 70kt / 48h        5.4%       14.3%        9.8%
 65kt / 72h        3.9%       12.9%        8.4%