Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212021 210218 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.60     37.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  15.8  15.7  16.5  20.7  29.5  28.0  32.2  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  94.4  76.0  84.8  88.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  22.0   7.0   1.0  21.0  33.0  29.0  43.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  50.0  44.0  42.0  38.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0  -7.0 -22.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.2%       10.2%        8.7%
 25kt / 24h       17.0%       42.9%       30.0%
 30kt / 24h       11.6%       34.6%       23.1%
 35kt / 24h       11.6%       34.6%       23.1%
 40kt / 24h        3.7%       34.0%       18.8%
 45kt / 36h        9.4%       30.7%       20.0%
 55kt / 36h        4.3%       15.6%        9.9%
 55kt / 48h        3.2%        7.9%        5.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        4.8%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        3.1%        1.7%