Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212021 210218 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.30     37.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  13.3  18.5  21.1  28.7  34.3  35.9  41.8  F  F  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  16.0  12.0   9.0   7.0  10.0   5.0   3.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 107.3 100.7  94.4  84.8  83.0  83.0  72.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0   1.0  15.0  23.0  25.0  57.0  65.0  89.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  59.0  56.0  54.0  58.0  58.0  61.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0  10.0 -10.0  36.0  59.0 130.0  N  N  N  U  F VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.1%       12.6%       10.3%
 25kt / 24h       13.8%       33.0%       23.4%
 30kt / 24h        8.9%       23.4%       16.1%
 35kt / 24h        8.2%       23.4%       15.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%       21.3%       11.7%
 45kt / 36h        4.6%       19.7%       12.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.6%        9.0%        5.8%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        3.6%        2.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        2.6%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%