Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212021 210218 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -23.60     37.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9  19.4  20.6  23.2  31.4  34.6  43.4  50.1  F  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.0 100.1  95.7  89.4  83.5  81.6  81.6  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  15.0  23.0  24.0  62.0  54.0  83.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  59.0  57.0  54.0  47.0  45.0  38.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   9.0   1.0   7.0  36.0  89.0 143.0  N  N  U  N  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.1%        9.5%        8.3%
 25kt / 24h        9.4%       23.9%       16.7%
 30kt / 24h        7.4%       16.9%       12.1%
 35kt / 24h        7.4%       16.9%       12.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%       15.4%        8.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%       11.5%        7.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        4.5%        2.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%