Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212021 210219 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.20     37.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.8  12.0  15.8  21.4  31.1  31.6  41.3  44.7  F  F  F  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  11.0   9.0   9.0  13.0   5.0   1.7   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.1  88.6  82.4  80.5  76.6  74.8  58.0  26.8  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  14.0  24.0  22.0  49.0  49.0  74.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  54.0  56.0  52.0  54.0  58.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   0.0  -3.0  26.0  64.0 134.0 215.0  N  N  N  N VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       20.4%       22.7%       21.6%
 25kt / 24h       23.0%       39.9%       31.4%
 30kt / 24h       21.1%       34.0%       27.5%
 35kt / 24h       21.1%       34.0%       27.5%
 40kt / 24h        6.4%       32.2%       19.3%
 45kt / 36h        8.4%       21.0%       14.7%
 55kt / 36h        4.9%       10.6%        7.8%
 55kt / 48h        1.9%        3.6%        2.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        2.1%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%