Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212021 210219 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -24.60     36.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.0  15.7  20.5  28.7  30.9  34.2  46.9  40.1  F  F  N  N  U  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.7  76.5  72.4  70.5  68.5  68.5  36.7  11.6  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  25.0  22.0  39.0   6.0  65.0  61.0  24.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  53.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  56.0  57.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0  -2.0  12.0  37.0  85.0 168.0 265.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       31.8%       25.2%       28.5%
 25kt / 24h       23.4%       33.5%       28.4%
 30kt / 24h       23.4%       31.0%       27.2%
 35kt / 24h       23.4%       31.0%       27.2%
 40kt / 24h        9.0%       28.1%       18.5%
 45kt / 36h        6.6%       12.9%        9.8%
 55kt / 36h        3.2%        5.7%        4.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        2.2%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%