Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212021 210220 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -26.50     36.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  23.0  18.9  24.6  37.5  51.9  76.6  84.9  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  11.0   6.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         73.5  73.5  71.6  71.6  40.4  15.0   5.2 -12.7  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  34.0  30.0  55.0  42.0  25.0  13.0  35.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  52.0  46.0  46.0  44.0  31.0  23.0  18.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -13.0  -9.0 -16.0  83.0 123.0-183.0-139.0  F VF  F VF VU VU VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.9%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons