Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH212021 210220 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -27.20     36.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  18.9  24.5  36.7  33.2  66.6  70.0  64.8  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         73.5  73.5  73.5  57.7  29.8   1.2 -10.0 -15.8  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  30.0  54.0  35.0  31.0  43.0  15.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  46.0  46.0  43.0  38.0  28.0  23.0  23.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0  -9.0 -15.0  32.0  87.0 124.0 -21.0 -29.0 VF  F VF VU VU VU VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.2%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.3%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons