Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222021 210226 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.00    100.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  29.9  27.5  30.3  23.1  13.7  22.4  23.1  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  45.0  45.0  38.0  26.0  15.0   8.0   4.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0 107.4  98.0  92.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  81.0  51.0  43.0  30.0  12.0 -30.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  66.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  64.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        2.7%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        7.7%       19.8%       13.7%
 30kt / 24h        3.3%        7.3%        5.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        7.3%        4.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        6.8%        3.7%
 45kt / 36h        5.4%       22.4%       13.9%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%        7.6%        4.9%
 55kt / 48h        8.0%       10.4%        9.2%
 70kt / 48h        3.3%        7.5%        5.4%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%        7.6%        5.1%