Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222021 210226 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.50     95.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     99.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  30.7  29.2  20.9  16.3  18.8  22.2  23.9  N  U  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0  99.6  90.7  82.4  80.5  76.6  73.0  71.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0 -11.0  10.0  12.0  54.0  23.0  18.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  57.0  59.0  51.0  49.0  48.0  51.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   1.0 -10.0  -9.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.4%       10.9%       12.2%
 25kt / 24h       17.9%       27.8%       22.8%
 30kt / 24h       17.9%       22.9%       20.4%
 35kt / 24h       17.9%       22.9%       20.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%       16.5%        9.2%
 45kt / 36h        5.1%       20.1%       12.6%
 55kt / 36h        2.1%        9.6%        5.9%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        5.7%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        4.0%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.5%        1.3%