Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222021 210227 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.00     94.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.8  34.8  25.7  25.4  21.7  17.0  21.2  16.2  U  U  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  22.0  19.0  23.0  29.0  23.0  16.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.6  85.7  79.4  77.4  79.4  77.4  73.5  69.8  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0 104.0  96.0  84.0  44.0   5.0  -6.0   0.0  N  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  61.0  58.0  61.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.1%        6.2%        8.7%
 25kt / 24h       16.8%       21.4%       19.1%
 30kt / 24h        9.9%       14.6%       12.3%
 35kt / 24h        9.8%       14.6%       12.2%
 40kt / 24h        3.0%       11.2%        7.1%
 45kt / 36h        8.0%       11.9%        9.9%
 55kt / 36h        2.6%        4.2%        3.4%
 55kt / 48h        4.7%        4.9%        4.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        2.5%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        2.6%        1.7%