Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222021 210227 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.40     94.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     85.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.7  22.2  19.7  16.0  16.0  17.7  16.8  24.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.7  77.4  75.5  75.5  73.5  69.8  68.0  66.2  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  30.0  31.0  48.0  39.0  16.0  21.0   4.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  59.0  55.0  55.0  51.0  50.0  50.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0   2.0   3.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.3%        5.7%        7.0%
 25kt / 24h        9.8%       18.7%       14.3%
 30kt / 24h        8.9%       14.8%       11.9%
 35kt / 24h        8.9%       14.8%       11.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%       10.3%        6.0%
 45kt / 36h        4.0%       12.5%        8.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        5.4%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        3.5%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%