Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222021 210227 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60     92.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     82.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  15.5  11.0  14.2  20.7  24.7  24.9  27.6  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         61.6  61.6  59.8  58.0  54.4  51.0  49.3  49.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  46.0  51.0  29.0  -7.0 -13.0  16.0   8.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  55.0  55.0  52.0  50.0  45.0  47.0  47.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0  -1.0  -5.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       25.6%       15.0%       20.3%
 25kt / 24h       25.4%       31.4%       28.4%
 30kt / 24h       25.4%       31.4%       28.4%
 35kt / 24h       25.4%       31.4%       28.4%
 40kt / 24h        8.4%       24.5%       16.5%
 45kt / 36h        8.3%       16.5%       12.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons