Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222021 210228 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.90     92.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     89.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  18.5  21.5  23.2  26.5  25.2  28.7  38.7  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0   7.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         56.6  56.6  54.8  53.0  49.4  47.7  46.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  43.0  13.0  -1.0   4.0   1.0  20.0 -34.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  51.0  49.0  48.0  51.0  54.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0 -14.0  -8.0  -8.0  -4.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N VF  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       28.6%       14.5%       21.5%
 25kt / 24h       16.8%       19.3%       18.0%
 30kt / 24h       16.8%       17.1%       16.9%
 35kt / 24h       16.8%       17.1%       16.9%
 40kt / 24h        5.9%       12.0%        8.9%
 45kt / 36h        6.6%        8.7%        7.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons