Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222021 210228 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.30     91.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  21.8  20.2  25.2  27.5  26.5  32.4  36.6  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         51.6  51.6  49.8  48.0  46.2  46.2  44.4  44.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  13.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  25.0  -6.0 -28.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  50.0  54.0  51.0  54.0  58.0  56.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0 -14.0  -7.0 -13.0  -9.0  -5.0  -7.0   2.0  N VF  F VF  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.7%        7.9%       12.8%
 25kt / 24h        9.7%        9.7%        9.7%
 30kt / 24h        9.7%        7.3%        8.5%
 35kt / 24h        9.7%        7.3%        8.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%        5.1%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons