Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222021 210228 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.40     91.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.0  23.9  25.2  26.1  27.1  24.3  27.2  25.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   3.0   2.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         36.6  36.6  34.8  33.0  33.0  31.2  31.2  27.7  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0   7.0  -1.0  -5.0 -26.0  -8.0 -23.0 -47.0  U  U  U  U VU  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  51.0  52.0  53.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0  -6.0  -9.0  -6.0  -7.0   0.0   0.0   3.0 VF  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       26.1%        7.7%       16.9%
 25kt / 24h        6.2%        6.2%        6.2%
 30kt / 24h        5.6%        2.3%        3.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons