Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222021 210228 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80     90.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  24.7  25.8  27.9  22.6  28.2  27.1  25.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         36.2  34.4  34.4  32.7  32.7  31.0  29.3  27.7  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0   0.0  -5.0 -11.0   0.0 -30.0 -23.0 -29.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  51.0  52.0  54.0  55.0  57.0  52.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0 -11.0  -5.0  -6.0  -4.0  -6.0  -1.0   3.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.6%        2.7%        6.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        2.3%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons