Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222021 210301 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.00     89.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  26.2  24.6  24.3  24.3  23.8  23.3  28.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         43.0  43.0  43.0  41.2  41.2  39.4  36.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  -2.0 -19.0  12.0  -2.0  -7.0   5.0 -19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  55.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  53.0  51.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        0.9%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons