Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222021 210301 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.30     89.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  27.1  23.9  23.5  28.2  28.7  29.0  38.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.7   0.4   0.1   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         46.2  46.2  46.2  44.4  44.4  41.0  36.1  25.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0 -24.0  -7.0   0.0 -21.0  -6.0  33.0  64.0  U VU  U  U VU  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  54.0  56.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        0.9%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons