Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222021 210301 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.40     89.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  23.9  23.7  26.2  26.7  30.5  33.7  46.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         37.7  37.7  36.0  36.0  34.3  32.7  25.0  15.4  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -24.0  -7.0   0.0 -35.0 -23.0   9.0  59.0  49.0 VU  U  U VU VU  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  56.0  56.0  52.0  57.0  50.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -8.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        0.9%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons