Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222021 210302 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.60     89.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  23.7  27.2  27.3  23.5  27.3  31.9  34.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.9   0.8   0.6   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         36.0  36.0  36.0  34.3  32.7  28.0  18.0   3.8  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0   3.0 -12.0 -12.0  -6.0  11.0  50.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  55.0  53.0  54.0  53.0  54.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.9%        1.2%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons