Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222021 210302 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.60     89.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  19.9  20.0  17.3  22.2  23.4  23.7  32.8  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         39.4  37.7  37.7  36.0  32.7  25.0  16.7  12.9  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0   2.0  16.0  26.0  22.0  33.0   4.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  58.0  55.0  58.0  53.0  54.0  46.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -6.0 -11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        1.5%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        2.1%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons