Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222021 210302 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.70     89.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  22.3  18.6  21.8  26.0  28.8  29.0  41.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         37.7  37.7  36.0  34.3  26.5  16.7   8.2  -0.3  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0  -3.0  26.0  23.0  15.0  18.0  28.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  55.0  56.0  58.0  56.0  53.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -7.0  -4.0 -10.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        0.8%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.1%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons