Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222021 210302 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.70     90.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  19.0  21.0  26.4  29.7  35.0  46.7  60.2  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         36.1  34.6  34.6  34.6  27.2  23.0   9.8   2.8  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0  26.0  23.0  31.0  37.0   6.0  12.0  15.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  60.0  59.0  57.0  56.0  52.0  44.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -6.0  -6.0 -22.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.4%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons