Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222021 210303 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.90     90.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  18.8  25.4  24.6  35.0  41.3  54.5  55.4  F  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         39.6  39.6  36.5  32.2  26.7  17.0   9.7   9.7  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0   3.0  -4.0  19.0  36.0  34.0  35.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  55.0  53.0  55.0  51.0  43.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0 -11.0 -12.0 -13.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons