Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222021 210303 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.70     92.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  26.0  30.7  34.6  44.4  57.0  58.1  63.5  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  57.2  54.4  53.0  45.5  32.8  29.1  27.4  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  32.0  42.0  51.0  63.0   5.0  60.0  32.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  54.0  53.0  50.0  46.0  36.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -5.0  -3.0  -9.0  -8.0 -11.0  -4.0  -8.0  N  F  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons