Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222021 210304 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.10     93.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  31.6  33.5  37.6  53.2  50.6  61.2  60.8  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.0  61.7  56.7  52.0  42.8  40.9  41.8  43.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  70.0  48.0  62.0  16.0  61.0   0.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  51.0  50.0  50.0  44.0  37.0  26.0  24.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -8.0 -11.0 -12.0 -16.0 -12.0  -1.0  -4.0  N  F  F  F VF  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons