Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222021 210304 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -22.40     94.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.6  43.8  55.6  55.3  56.9  62.4  60.1  71.5  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         56.7  50.9  44.7  41.8  40.0  39.1  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  56.0  25.0  -5.0  13.0  -6.0  19.0   5.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  49.0  47.0  41.0  34.0  28.0  23.0  23.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -8.0  -9.0 -15.0  -1.0   7.0   4.0  11.0  F  F  F VF  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons