Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH222021 210308 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -29.30     97.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        52.4  48.6  50.4  52.5  63.8  67.0  71.0  72.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         48.4  46.4  45.2  44.0  44.6  47.1  49.7  51.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0 -21.0 -29.0   0.0 -14.0  -3.0 -11.0 -14.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   34.0  31.0  34.0  36.0  48.0  51.0  51.0  57.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0   3.0   5.0  12.0  20.0  12.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  U VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons