Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232021 210301 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.70    146.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  11.5  13.9  19.5  21.9  27.7  33.7  26.4  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 101.6 103.5 101.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  80.0  87.0  87.0  78.0  36.0  62.0  58.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  66.0  64.0  58.0  52.0  45.0  42.0  38.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        5.4%        3.9%
 25kt / 24h       12.3%       35.9%       24.1%
 30kt / 24h        6.5%       23.0%       14.7%
 35kt / 24h        4.4%       23.0%       13.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%       23.0%       12.1%
 45kt / 36h       10.8%       38.4%       24.6%
 55kt / 36h        4.8%       18.3%       11.5%
 55kt / 48h        7.4%       13.8%       10.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.1%        9.9%        6.5%
 65kt / 72h        5.0%        7.1%        6.1%