Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH232021 210301 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.10    146.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  22.6  27.2  32.7  43.0  49.8  53.7  44.8  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   70.0  67.0  65.0  62.0  57.0  53.0  53.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0   6.0  26.0  36.0  36.0  52.0  22.0  34.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  68.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  67.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   0.0  -5.0   7.0  19.0  13.0  -5.0  N  N  N  F  N VU  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        4.6%        4.0%
 25kt / 24h        8.7%       20.3%       14.5%
 30kt / 24h        5.4%        7.8%        6.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%        7.8%        5.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        7.8%        4.5%
 45kt / 36h        4.5%       12.9%        8.7%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%        3.5%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h        2.2%        3.5%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        1.5%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        1.7%        1.3%